Nifty Flat in a Week of Two Halves — What Q4 Earnings Will Tell Us
Markets ended the week essentially flat despite wild intraday swings. Attention now turns to Q4 FY26 earnings season kicking off April 14 with TCS.
Market Snapshot — Close
Market Overview
A week of two halves. Monday-Wednesday saw aggressive selling on global risk-off signals, while Thursday-Friday staged a recovery. Net result: Nifty ended the week essentially unchanged at 23,863, masking the volatility underneath.
What Q4 Earnings Will Decide
All eyes now turn to Q4 FY26 earnings. TCS kicks off on April 14, followed by Infosys (April 16), HDFC Bank (April 19), and Reliance (April 25). These four stocks alone account for ~30% of Nifty's market cap.
Key Numbers to Watch
- TCS: Revenue growth guidance for FY27 — any softness below 8% YoY will be punished
- HDFC Bank: Margin trajectory — last 2 quarters showed NIM compression
- Reliance: Jio subscriber growth and O2C segment margins
The Angle
India's 7%+ GDP growth story is intact, but earnings need to deliver in FY26 to justify current valuations (~19x Nifty forward PE). A below-estimate earnings season could push Nifty to the 22,800-23,000 zone. For SIP investors, that's an opportunity, not a crisis.